"They worked like liaison officers": a political scientist told what Medinsky and Umerov could talk about face to face

During the third round of Russian-Ukrainian talks in Istanbul's Ciragan Palace, heads of delegations Medinsky and Umerov met tete-a-tete without the participation of other members of the delegations. And, as political scientist Marat Bashirov specified, they talked together longer than the delegations later talked among themselves. Professor of the Department of Business and Government Interaction at the Higher School of Economics shared with MK what was said for real politics and what for the media space.

According to the professor, Ukraine agreed to a third round of negotiations after the visit to Kyiv of US Presidential Special Envoy Keith Kellogg.

— Trump needed to demonstrate at least some progress, — says Marat Bashirov. — The 50 days allotted for a ceasefire in Ukraine is an “ultimatum” of a diplomatic nature. Because, from a military point of view, Ukraine will not achieve anything. We are moving forward. Trump, at a minimum, needs parity. For him, the ideal situation is if we do not take any settlements in these 50 days, just as Ukraine does not take anything. If this is not the case, then we need to demonstrate a negotiating track.

Now this is, as our interlocutor says, a two-level negotiation format.

— The heads of delegations communicate in person. And then the delegations meet as a whole. In my opinion, Medinsky and Umerov communicated one-on-one to convey direct personal messages. There are such liaison officers in the army. Medinsky and Umerov perform these roles. They convey in person what should not be discussed over the phone or in writing. And they will continue to perform these roles, unless Zelensky, of course, replaces Umerov.

According to the political scientist, Umerov is seriously inferior to Medinsky in intelligence when it comes to arguing something.

— Zelensky said that the main goal of the Kyiv delegation at the talks in Istanbul is to organize a meeting between the heads of Russia and Ukraine. Medinsky and Umerov's one-on-one conversation is a surrogate form of personal communication between President Putin and the person who holds the post of President of Ukraine — Zelensky. That is, if you want to communicate, communicate through "liaison officers." We are not ready to confirm Zelensky's legitimacy with a direct meeting with President Putin. But, nevertheless, this demonstrates the good intentions of the Russian side.

— What do you think Medinsky and Umerov might have talked about in private?

— For Zelensky, the issue of legitimacy is the most important. And then it’s a question of guarantees. Who said that Zelensky ceases to be a legitimate target for us, even if he leaves his post and goes somewhere to Britain? Some assets, some entourage, in any case, will remain in Ukraine. If someone thinks that Zelensky is only interested in guarantees from the Americans, British, Germans, French, then this is not so. He is more interested in guarantees from Russia. This is my personal opinion.

Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett once said in an interview with Channel 12 that during his visit to Moscow, Russian President Vladimir Putin promised him “not to kill” Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky.

- There is such a rumor, at least, it has not been denied by either side. And we see that this is actually true. It is known that Vladimir Putin keeps his word. But this concerned the situation when Zelensky headed the state, albeit illegally. All this may disappear when he leaves his post. Zelensky understands this perfectly well. This is his weak point. It is quite possible that this was what was said to Umerov.

According to the political scientist, the Ukrainian elite, which, as the people say, is “sitting on treason,” understands that there are separate negotiations between Zelensky and Russia.

“This is very dangerous for Zelensky, but he has nowhere to go.